Guidolin, Massimo (contributor); … - 2005
business cycle. Correlations
between smoothed state probabilities and NBER recession dates are 0.32 (state 1), -0.13
(state 2 … stock
market crash, the Kuwait Invasion in 1990 and the Asian flu. It matches the beginning of
major U.S. business cycle … business cycle upturns or
market ‘rebounds’ following crashes. Many peaks of U.S. expansions and market booms
such as 1985 …