Chauvet, Marcelle; Piger, Jeremy M. - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - 2005
This paper evaluates the ability of formal rules to establish U.S. business cycle turning point dates in real time. We … the accuracy and timeliness with which they would have identified the NBER business cycle chronology had they been used in … significant improvement over the NBER in the speed with which business cycle troughs were identified. In addition to suggesting …