Brand, Claus; Reimers, Hans-Eggert; Seitz, Franz - EconWPA - 2003
This paper analyses the information content of M1 for euro area real GDP since the beginning of the 1980s. After a … literature review on the empirical results in individual euro area countries we review some theoretical arguments why real narrow … with the U.S., in the euro area, M1 has better and more robust forecasting properties than the term spread. These …