Franses, Ph.H.B.F.; McAleer, M.J.; Legerstee, R. - Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute - 2008
, this paper develops a model to generate replicable FOMC forecasts, and compares the staff forecasts, non-replicable FOMC … forecasts, and replicable FOMC forecasts, considers optimal forecasts and efficient estimation methods, and presents a direct … test of FOMC expertise on non-replicable FOMC forecasts. The empirical analysis of Romer and Romer (2008) is re-examined to …