Groen, Jan J. J.; Paap, Richard; Ravazzolo, Francesco - Federal Reserve Bank of New York - 2009
This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … that use activity and expectations variables. We propose a Phillips-curve-type model that results from averaging across … Phillips-curve-based predictions. We use this framework to describe personal consumption expenditure (PCE) deflator and GDP …