Green, Kesten C; Armstrong, J Scott; Soon, Willie - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2008
appropriate benchmark. To be useful to policy makers, a proposed forecasting method would have to provide forecasts that were … substantially more accurate than the benchmark. We calculated benchmark forecasts against the UK Met Office Hadley Centre’s annual …. The accuracy of forecasts from our naïve model is such that even perfect forecasts would be unlikely to help policy makers …