Leiva-Leon, Danilo; Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel; Rots, Eyno - 2020
We propose an empirical framework to measure the degree of weakness of the global economy in real-time. It relies on … nonlinear factor models designed to infer recessionary episodes of heterogeneous deepness, and fitted to the largest advanced … economies (U.S., Euro Area, Japan, U.K., Canada and Australia) and emerging markets (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico and …