Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers - 2012
forecasts based on oil futures prices of the type commonly employed by central banks worldwide. Such monthly forecasts, however …, differ in several important dimensions from the forecasts central banks require when making policy decisions. First, central …. Second, many central banks are interested in forecasting the real price of Brent crude oil rather than any of the U …