Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2011
forecasts of the real price of oil from a variety of models. We document that revisions of the data typically represent news …-time forecasts of the real price of oil can be more accurate than the no-change forecast at horizons up to one year. In some cases … to understand historical fluctuations in the real price of oil, but to construct conditional forecasts that reflect …