Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2013
Notwithstanding a resurgence in research on out-of-sample forecasts of the price of oil in recent years, there is one … important approach to forecasting the real price of oil which has not been studied systematically to date. This approach is … product spread, defined as the difference between suitably weighted refined product market prices and the price of crude oil …