Leigh, Andrew (contributor); Wolfers, Justin (contributor) - 2005
Election
Forecast Horizon
Election Eve 3 months prior 1 year prior
Panel A: Predicting Coalition 2-Party Preferred Vote … forecast is calculated from past forecast errors, using
the formula ( )
'
1
'
1)(
jj
xXXxsForecastse
−
+= , where s
2
is the … is an n x J data matrix.
3
These estimates – derived by applying the standard error of the
forecast to a normal …