Kilian, Lutz; Nomikos, Nikos K.; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2021 - This version: October 13, 2021
to domestic U.S. demand as well as foreign demand for U.S. manufactured goods. We show that, unlike in the Great … Recession, the primary determinant of the U.S. economic contraction in early 2020 was a sharp drop in domestic demand. Although …