Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J. - 2014
price shocks. We quantify the conditional recessionary effect of oil price shocks in the net oil price increase model for … all episodes of net oil price increases since the mid-1970s. Compared to the linear model, the cumulative effect of oil … price shocks over course of the next two years is much larger in the net oil price increase model. For example, oil price …