Osborn, D R; Sensier, M; Dijk, D van - School of Economics, University of Manchester - 2003
financial variables as leading indicators. The output gap, stock market prices and interest rates are found to be the most … leading indicators for Europe and the US, and sometimes for US or German interest rates. Both the domestic output gap and the … international composite leading indicators typically play negative roles for the probability of a growth cycle expansion, so that …