Ahmad, Saad; Limão, Nuno; Oliver, Sarah; Shikher, Serge - 2022
We estimate the impact of increased policy uncertainty from Brexit on UK trade in services. We apply an uncertainty … variation in the probability of Brexit from prediction markets interacted with a new trade policy risk measure across service …-augmented gravity equation to UK services trade with the European Union at the industry level from 2016Q1 to 2018Q4. By exploiting the …