Chavleishvili, Sulkhan; Fahr, Stephan; Kremer, Manfred; … - 2021
the expected growth and downside risks. This paper reviews the literature on Growth-at-Risk, embeds it in the wider … literatures, by forecasting the entire real GDP growth distribution with a structural quantile vector autoregressive model. It … accounts for direct and indirect interactions between financial vulnerabilities, financial stress and real GDP growth and …