de Bondt, Gabe; Hahn, Elke - 2021
This study develops a new monthly euro Area‐wide Leading Indicator (ALI) for the euro area business cycle. It derives … series. Our main findings are that i) the applied monthly reference business cycle indicator (BCI) derived from industrial … ahead and satisfactory predictors by up to 2 years ahead. A real‐time analysis for predicting the euro business cycle during …