Schüler, Yves Stephan - 2015
identifying common cycle frequencies across a set of indicators, and a time varying aggregation emphasising systemic developments … synthetic financial cycle, outperform the credit-to-GDP gap in predicting systemic banking crises on a horizon of up to three …. Concordance of financial and business cycles is observed only 2/3 of the time. While a similar degree of concordance for financial …