de Soyres, Constance; Kawai, Reina; Wang, Mengxue - 2022
This paper provides new empirical evidence of the impact of an unanticipated change in public debt on real GDP. Using … public debt forecast errors, we identify exogenous changes in public debt to assess the impact of a change in the debt to GDP … ratio on real GDP. By analyzing data on gross public debt for 178 countries over 1995-2020, we find that the impact of an …