Hofmann, Boris - European Central Bank - 2008
indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 … in the early years of EMU, but has substantially deteriorated recently. A significantly improved forecasting performance … vis-à-vis the random walk can, however, be achieved based on the ECB’s internal M3 series corrected for the effects of …