Engelberg, Joseph; Manski, Charles F.; Williams, Jared - In: Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 27 (2009), pp. 30-41
We use data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to compare point predictions of gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation with the subjective probability distributions held by forecasters. We find that most SPF point predictions are quite close to the central tendencies of...