Piazzesi, Monika (contributor); … - 2008
forecasting interest rate drops in recessions, whereas survey forecasters do not.
During and after recessions, conventionally … relative supply of longer bonds declined before 1980, as interest rate spreads were
falling, but saw a dramatic increase in the … well as beliefs about returns. Beliefs about returns are based on current bond prices ˆp
t
,the
current short rate i
t
, as …