Fritsche, Ulrich; Döpke, Jörg - 2006 - This version: February 2006
observations from 1963 to 2004. We rely on forecasts from the joint forecast of the so-called "six leading" forecasting … institutions in Germany and argue that violations of the rationality hypothesis are due to relatively few large forecast errors …, especially on monetary factors. We test for a non-linear relation between forecast errors and macroeconomic fundamentals and find …