Chang, Chia-Lin; Franses, Philip Hans; McAleer, Michael - Tinbergen Instituut - 2013
macroeconomic forecasts and forecast updates like those from IMF and OECD typically involve both a model component, which is … replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast … updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average, as the actual value is approached …