Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2016 - First version: January 21, 2015. This version: September 13, 2015
Some observers have conjectured that the steep decline in the price of oil between June and December 2014 resulted from … positive oil supply shocks in the second half of 2014. Others have suggested that a major shock to oil price expectations … neither explanation appears supported by the data. We show that more than half of the decline in the price of oil was …