Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Giannoni, Marc Paolo; … - 2019
This paper bridges the gap between two popular approaches to estimating the natural rate of unemployment, u*. The first … estimate the natural rate of unemployment in the United States using both data on labor market flows and a forward … estimate that the natural rate of unemployment was around 4.0 percent toward the end of 2018 and that the unemployment gap was …