Bjørnland, Hilde C.; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Thorsrud, … - Norges Bank - 2015
at the national level. In particular, we ask if a model with common international business cycle factors forecasts better … than the purely domestic alternative? To answer this question we employ a Dynamic Factor Model (DFM) and run an out … event causes a clear preference shift towards the model including a common global factor. Similar shifts are not observed …