Birchenhall, Chris R; Osborn, Denise R; Sensier, Marianne - In: Scottish Journal of Political Economy 48 (2001) 2, pp. 179-95
This paper uses logistic regression to construct a one-quarter ahead prediction model for classical business cycle regimes in the UK. The binary dependent variable is obtained by applying simple mechanical rules to date turning points in quarterly real GDP data from 1963 to 1999. Using a range...