Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan - Banco de México - 2010
We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate … survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons …. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based forecasts …