Drechsel, Katja; Scheufele, Rolf - Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) - 2011
particular regarding its cause and magnitude. We show to what extent forecasters and forecasts based on leading indicators fail … forecasts and forecasts based on leading indicators resulted during this recession which implies that the recession was very … difficult to forecast. However, some leading indicators (survey data, risk spreads, stock prices) have indicated an economic …