Lenza, Michele; Moutachaker, Inès; Paredes, Joan - 2023
European Central Bank (ECB). We show that a quantile regression forest, capturing a general non-linear relationship between … ECB point inflation forecasts, displaying similar deviations from "linearity". Given that the ECB modelling toolbox is … overwhelmingly linear, this finding suggests that the expert judgement embedded in the ECB forecast may be characterized by some mild …