Marcellino, Massimiliano; Musso, Alberto - In: Economic Modelling 28 (2011) 4, pp. 1842-1856
This paper provides evidence on the reliability of euro area real-time output gap estimates. A genuine real-time data … set for the euro area is used, including vintages of several sets of euro area output gap estimates available from 1999 to … the magnitude and the sign of the real-time estimates of the euro area output gap are very uncertain. The uncertainty is …