Pierdzioch, Christian; Rülke, Jan-Christoph; … - In: Japan and the World Economy 23 (2011) 4, pp. 253-258
We analyze forecasts of car sales in the U.S. and forecasts of car registrations in Japan. We document a substantial heterogeneity of forecasts, and we show that, based on traditional criteria, forecasts are neither rational nor unbiased. We also report that forecasters anti-herd, that is,...