Lahiri, Kajal; Sheng, Xuguang - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2009
We estimate a Bayesian learning model with heterogeneity aimed at explaining the evolution of expert disagreement in … months and even 36 months for some countries. Forecast disagreement arises from two primary sources in our model: differences … parameters, together with two separate case studies on (i) the dynamics of forecast disagreement in the aftermath of the 9 …