Kholodilin, Konstantin Arkadievich; Siliverstovs, Boriss - 2009
The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by … the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private consumption data are the most reliable. In addition, early forecasts … forecasts of all the variables seem to be no more accurate than naive forecasts based on the historical mean of the final data. …