Lee, Tae-Hwy; Wang, Yiyao - Department of Economics, University of California-Riverside - 2015
for SPF cross-sectional percentile forecasts that are not encompassed by Greenbook forecast under Greenbook's loss … preference, which exhibits time-varying asymmetry. To evaluate SPF percentile forecasts under Greenbook's loss function, we … of the U.S. quarterly real output and inflation forecasts over the past four decades, we find that almost all SPF …