Taylor, Greg; Mc Guire, Gráinne - In: Risks : open access journal 11 (2023) 11, pp. 1-28
. Forecast error is generally regarded as consisting of three components, namely parameter, process and model errors. The first … two of these components, and their estimation, are well understood, but less so model error. Model error itself is … considered in two parts: one part that is capable of estimation from past data (internal model error), and another part that is …