Khallouli, Wajih; Nab, Mahmoud Sami - In: Economie Internationale (2013) 135-136, pp. 62-78
This paper develops an Early Warning System (EWS) based on third-generation mechanism of financial crises using the Markov switching model and a new twin-crisis index. We apply the EWS to Turkey using monthly data ranging between February 1992 and December 2007.We show that the mode captures the...