Cole, Stephen J.; Martínez-García, Enrique; Sims, Eric R. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
unique survey-based measures of expected inflation, output growth, and interest rates, we estimate a small-scale New … and affects the overall effectiveness of forward guidance. We find that the central banks of the U.S., the U.K., Germany … guidance less effective. In a counterfactual analysis, we document that inflation would have been significantly higher, and the …