Braun, Robin - In: Quantitative economics : QE ; journal of the … 14 (2023) 4, pp. 1163-1198
more important. In this paper, I revisit the evidence in a model that combines weakly informative priors with … model, posterior mass of the short-run oil supply elasticity shifts toward zero and oil supply shocks become minor drivers … of oil prices. In terms of contributions to the forecast error variance of oil prices, the model arrives at median …