Štrumbelj, Erik; Vračar, Petar - In: International Journal of Forecasting 28 (2012) 2, pp. 532-542
We used a possession-based Markov model to model the progression of a basketball match. The model’s transition matrix was estimated directly from NBA play-by-play data and indirectly from the teams’ summary statistics. We evaluated both this approach and other commonly used forecasting...