Juodis, Artūras; Kučinskas, Simas - In: Quantitative Economics 14 (2023) 2, pp. 609-650
Expectations affect economic decisions, and inaccurate expectations are costly. Expectations can be wrong due to either … survey expectations. The method is based on the insight that theoretical models of expectation formation predict a factor … structure for individual expectations. Using data from professional forecasters, we find that the magnitude of noise is large …