The outlook for the German economy has deteriorated over the last month. Although, the high level of sick leave and supply bottlenecks have noticeably eased, GDP has not yet returned to an expansionary course. Business surveys indicate that economic momentum will remain weak in the second half...

We analyze the relationship between uncertainty and economic growth expectations in Mexico through the Growth at Risk methodology. Our analysis consists of two stages: first, we estimate a quantile regression of annual output growth conditional on lagged values of a measure of macroeconomic...

Business cycles and economic growth have long been studied separately, hindering understanding of the nature and causes of economic fluctuations and growth. Here, we present an economic model that incorporates both deterministic trends and persistent fluctuations, derived from a general economic...

The existence of fluctuations is part of the narrative, especially when there is a slowdown (or worse, a contraction) in economic activity. The presence of long waves with a period of about 50 years as proposed by Kondratieff is one of the most controversial and fascinating theories about...

The global economy has expanded at a very moderate pace so far in 2023, but stayed clear of the recession predicted by many for the advanced economies as a result of the massive tightening of monetary policy. In the United States in particular, the economy is proving surprisingly robust. By...