uncertainty network behaves counter-cyclically in that a tighter network tends to associate with future business cycle …

This paper traces the evolution of John Maynard Keynes’s theory of the business cycle from his early writings in 1913 … major changes in the evolution of Keynes’s business cycle theories: a) the saving–investment framework to understand changes … in economic fluctuations; b) the capabilities of the banking system to moderate the business cycle; c) the effectiveness …

We introduce a market, liquidity, credit, and business-cycle risks asset pricing model. Because of the phase …-switching business-cycle risks and price-setting monopolistic competition, it has rational expectations and predictability. The …

We compare "real business cycle" and increasing returns models of economic fluctuations. In these models, business … sectors and on the increasing returns model is easier to reconcile with the data than the real business cycle model …

This paper discusses formal quantitative algorithms that can be used to identify business cycle turning points. An … before making a call of a business cycle turning point helps reduce the risk of misclassification. We introduce two new … measures for dating business cycle turning points, which we call the %u201Cquarterly real-time GDP-based recession probability …

behavior affect the overall business cycle. The analysis in this paper was motivated by our discovery that the parameter …

straight to the heart of two weaknesses of real business cycle (RBC) theory widely reported in the literature: neither shocks …