activity. When used in a standard recession probability model, the index outperforms the yield curve based forecast, a standard … yield data that are useful to understand recession episodes. When included as an additional control to the slope of the … indicators for the U.S. business cycle such as PMIs, consumers' surveys or employment data. …

We estimate a medium-scale model with and without rule-of-thumb consumers over the pre-Volcker and the Great Moderation … both models. The estimated fraction of rule-of-thumb consumers is low, such that the models are empirically almost … decompositions. We conclude that rule-of-thumb consumers are irrelevant to explain aggregate U.S. business cycle fluctuations …

inequality in the Spanish provinces in the post-crisis years (2015–2019). The results show that the density of bank branches has … no effect on regional income inequality, and hold for a variety of scenarios and different types of bank. Then, although … most previous literature suggests that bank branches reduce inequality, especially in advanced economies, that finding …