Banbura, Marta; Bobeica, Elena - 2020
breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output … extraordinarily long period by euro area standards. We complement the analysis using real-time data over 2005-2018. As lessons for …