This paper defines foresight as being a mental model about the future and considers the role of foresight in shaping actions and events reflected in imperious, heroic, tragic and chaotic futures (defined within the paper). The paper contends that success in foresight is not about acquiring...

This paper applies graphical modelling theory to recover identifying restrictions for the analysis of monetary policy shocks in a VAR of the US economy. Results are in line with the view that only high-frequency data should be assumed to be in the information set of the monetary authority when...

How does informality in emerging economies affect the conduct of monetary policy? To answer this question we construct a two-sector, formal-informal new Keynesian closed-economy. The informal sector is more labour intensive, is untaxed, has a classical labour market, faces high credit...

Dynamic principal-agent settings with asymmetric information but no commitment are well known to create a ratchet effect. Here, the most efficient agents must be provided with extra 'information rent' as an incentive to relinquish their informational advantage over an uninformed principal; this...

It has been shown that under perfect competition and a Cobb-Douglas production function, a basic real business cycle model may exhibit indeterminacy and sunspots fluctuations when income tax rates are determined by a balanced-budget rule. This paper introduces in an otherwise standard real...

We analyse the effects of a government spending expansion in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with Mortensen-Pissarides labour market frictions, deep habits and a constant-elasticity-of-substitution (CES) production function. The combination of deep habits and CES technology...

In this paper, we examine the stability of international macroeconomic policies of developing countries in the post-Bretton Woods period. We use the simple geometry of the classic, open-economy trilemma to construct a new, univariate measure of inter- national macroeconomic policy stability, and...

Studies have shown technical change has led to job polarisation. A relatively unexplored aspect of this is whether there has been a gender bias. This paper shows gender bias in technology driven skill polarisation. Between 1997 and 2006 the demand for women shows hollowing out across education...

We explore the costs and benefits of informality associated with the informal sector lying outside the tax regime in a two-sector New Keynesian model. The informal sector is more labour intensive, has a lower labour productivity, is untaxed and has a classical labour market. The formal sector...

Some commentators have claimed that there is a growing Beijing Consensus among emerging and developing economies concerning the merits of ChinaÕs economic policies. Within an analytical framework provided by the well known international trilemma, this paper investigates the empirical evidence...