Even though a multi-factor linear asset pricing model can be equivalently represented in a Beta or in a stochastic discount factor (SDF) form, its inferential efficiency and pricing accuracy features may differ when estimated by the generalized method of moments (GMM), both in small and in large...

From interbank interest rate option prices, we obtain the implied market expectations for interest rates using a genetic algorithm and a multifactor term structure model. We further analyse how those expectations differ for a subset of options and futures, and whether those expectations...

This paper examines the forecast power of subsets of the option-implied interest rate derivatives’ expectations. We use a string market model with three factors to extract the implied risk-neutral volatility of the short-end interest rate term structure. Using data from the Brazil derivatives...

This paper investigates the counterparty credit risk of interest rate swaps positions using the credit valuation adjustment (CVA) measure, and examines the potential dependency relationships between the probability of default (PD) and exposure at default (EAD). We empirically tested, using...

We estimate the personal communication risk-premium profile of the U.S. Federal Reserve(Fed) Chair by measuring a new dataset of the sentiment revealed by their public statements during their tenure. We analyze the impact of such Fed communications’ sentiment risk on the uncertainty of the...

Countless test statistics can be written as quadratic forms in certain random vectors, or ratios thereof. Consequently, their distribution has received considerable attention in the literature. Except for a few special cases, no closed-form expression for the cdf exists, and one resorts to...

Implicit in interest rate derivatives are Arrow-Debreu prices (or state price densities, SPDs) that contain fundamental information for risk and portfolio management in interest rate markets. To extract such information from interest rate derivatives, we propose a non-parametric method to...

In this paper a multidimensional term structure model is used to find statistical arbitrage opportunities in the interest rates derivatives market. The implied volatility of the model is calibrated by using a genetic algorithm optimization method. Two different options over the same underlying...

We illustrate the role of left tail dependence measures, left exceedance correlation (LEC) and left tail mean (LTM), in equity risk premium (ERP) predictability. LEC and LTM measure the average of pairwise left tail dependency among major equity sectors incorporating shocks that are...