Barro et al. (2022) investigate the quantity of safe assets held in the cross-section of developed countries and find that the average safe-asset ratio (ratio of safe assets to total assets) was 37% in 2015 and has remained relatively stable over time. They also document a crowding-out...

Rates of COVID deaths, hospitalizations, and cases differ markedly across U.S. states, as do rates of vaccination. This study uses cross-state regressions to assess impacts of vaccinations on COVID outcomes. A number of familiar issues arise concerning cross-sectional regressions, including...

Rates of COVID deaths and cases differ markedly across U.S. states, as do rates of vaccination. This study uses cross-state regressions to assess impacts of vaccinations on COVID outcomes. A number of familiar issues concerning cross-sectional regressions arise, including omitted variables,...

The economic effects of taxation depend on the configuration of marginal tax rates. We consider here the appropriate measure of a marginal tax rate for the federal individual income tax, which has a graduated-rate structure and allows for numerous legal and illegal deductions from total...

This paper summarizes the theoretical role of intertemporal substitution variables in the "new classical macroeconomics." An important implication is that positive monetary shocks tend to raise expected real returns that are calculated from the usual partial information set, but tend to lower...

The Ricardian equivalence proposition for public debt in my 1974 JPE paper is related to the discussions in Ricardo's Funding System, Smith's Wealth of Nations, and a number of treatments in macroeconomics from the 1950s to the 1970s. Useful extensions of the basic invariance proposition involve...

Do poor economies grow faster than rich ones? This important economic question (which we call [beta]-convergence) is analyzed in this paper using two regional data sets: 47 Prefectures in Japan and 48 States of the U.S.. We find clear evidence of convergence in both countries: poor prefectures...

For 188 independent countries in 2000, 72 had no state religion in the years 2000, 1970, and 1900; 58 had a state religion at all three dates; and 58 had some kind of transition. Among the 58 transitional countries, 12 had two transitions, 4 of which (former Soviet Republics in Asia) involved two...

In a world of integrated capital markets, the price of credit — which I measure by short-term expected real interest rates — is determined to equate the world aggregate of investment demand to the world aggregate of desired national saving. I implement this approach empirically by...