An experiment examined the effects of outcome feedback and three types of performance feedback - calibration feedback, resolution feedback, and covariance feedback - on various aspects of the performance of probability forecasters. Subjects made 55 forecasts in each of four essions,receiving...

Despite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary...

To assess probabilities in decision analysis, and for decision making in general, decision makers must evoke and apply relevant information. Decision analysts have developed a variety of structuring tools to aid decision makers in these tasks, including influence diagrams and knowledge maps....

A cognitive analysis of subjective probability is applied to the evaluation of techniques used by decision analysts for eliciting probabilities from experts. The construction of a subjective probability requires both the formation of a belief and the assessment of a probability that qualifies...